Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 39.848439 43.554029 47.685656 52.683498 58.635012 65.588192 74.470623
2025-06-29 34.302210 38.807483 44.149588 51.091460 60.100467 71.754973 88.652791
2025-07-06 30.672677 35.418697 41.260284 49.204244 60.125114 75.321083 99.637716
2025-07-13 29.671656 35.001929 41.827690 51.586264 65.922389 87.730170 127.526464
2025-07-20 27.957018 33.443637 40.657129 51.330521 67.773676 94.535003 148.983754
2025-07-27 27.476419 33.420021 41.486469 53.941926 74.344632 110.764988 198.099675
2025-08-03 26.561775 32.705615 41.243676 54.865837 78.299939 123.545404 250.450962
2025-08-10 25.537391 31.746601 40.538316 54.940349 80.748226 134.131066 308.795427
2025-08-17 24.226492 30.290900 38.975431 53.435028 80.021757 137.561995 348.023001
2025-08-24 23.026258 28.923703 37.446729 51.826929 78.838682 139.605885 385.987765
2025-08-31 22.651712 28.723145 37.664080 53.172706 83.664830 158.456129 552.738099
2025-09-07 22.011625 28.091976 37.162559 53.203829 85.796937 171.170357 743.207104
2025-09-14 21.091454 27.120416 36.251704 52.777221 87.730467 187.380059 1172.287971
2025-09-21 19.999837 25.838703 34.767486 51.168007 86.786600 194.472933 1711.565274
2025-09-28 18.961950 24.578727 33.225865 49.276379 84.803080 197.011332 2420.421866
2025-10-05 18.821045 24.674451 33.898471 51.664391 93.801197 251.817091 NaN
2025-10-12 18.223941 24.023913 33.268929 51.407995 96.003655 280.533307 NaN
2025-10-19 18.143362 24.175305 34.007841 54.026178 107.055071 383.165691 NaN
2025-10-26 17.799317 23.883004 33.947025 54.952543 113.596879 482.183177 NaN
2025-11-02 17.357339 23.407390 33.523237 55.027254 117.512482 579.699261 NaN
2025-11-09 16.727754 22.597107 32.446783 53.517946 115.614001 604.455910 NaN
2025-11-16 16.123167 21.805756 31.365744 51.905673 113.025559 616.115236 NaN
2025-11-23 15.949992 21.717427 31.561370 53.254937 121.685880 885.325142 NaN